INVESTEMAIS - Market Update - 04/03/2026

The Bitcoin market is showing signs of capitulation, with long-term holders (LTH) realizing losses and whales intensifying movements to exchanges.

This dynamic, which has not been seen since April 2023 for LTHs at loss, points to a possible market bottom, although selling pressure and low network activity persist.

Low network activity for six consecutive months, compared to past corrections in 2024, suggests periods of lower interest and widespread losses. However, historically, such phases of low activity and low network precede significant recoveries.

Whales on Move and ETF Dominance

The flow of whales to exchanges reached its highest level in two years, with a large volume BTC inflows. This coupled with dominance of short-term holders (STHs) who are realizing massive losses, signals a possible continuation of correction.

However, attention turns to LTHs: when price finds a major bottom, whale inflows tend to decrease and LTHs, whose coins mature after 155 days, begin to dominate indicating massive accumulation.

The rise of Bitcoin Spot ETFs is remarkable. Since May 2025, daily trading volume of ETFs has exceeded that of global centralized exchanges (CEX) combined. Currently, 55% of all Bitcoin spot volume comes from ETFs, consolidating institutional investors as dominant liquidity and dictating the flow to retail.

Capitulation, Support and Market Rotation

Technical indicators point to a capitulation phase. Funding rates in BTC futures markets have remained negative, a sign of pessimism and leverage for decline, contrasting with previous funds where rates were positive. Current selling pressure is the highest in three months.

Excessive leverage has been declining over past 16 months. Sharper price declines could force leveraged traders to capitulate, which historically precedes market bottoms. Maintaining support at $60,000 is crucial, as a break could indicate a target for resistance channel and market rotation could favor long-term accumulation.

Low network activity for six consecutive months, coupled with periods of low interest and mass losses, is a pattern that historically precedes recoveries. With the IBCI at 4.76 points, Bitcoin is reaching capitulation levels seen in previous market bottoms (2022 and 2018), signaling a high probability of historic bottom and potential for new all-time highs (ATHs) after clearing of leverage and speculative optimism.

The analysis of long-term holders (LTH) entering loss realization zone, something not seen since April 2023, reinforces the idea of imminent capitulation, which could be an attractive entry point for long-term investors, depending on resilience of $60,000 support level.